If ranching does not become more economically viable, the consequences will reach far beyond individual livelihoods. Rural economies, food supply stability, and the cultural backbone of working lands all depend on ranchers' ability to remain productive and financially resilient. Today, that viability is being tested by structural forces reshaping the ranching sector.

Cattle production is one visible example of these pressures. In the United States, cattle inventories have fallen to multi-decade lows, reflecting years of financial strain, prolonged drought, and historically high input costs. In 2025, the U.S. cattle inventory stood at roughly 86.7 million head, among the lowest levels recorded in decades.

But cattle are only one lens into a deeper challenge. In some places, ranching pressure has pushed the land so far that there aren't any livestock left at all. Some ranches can no longer sustain livestock because the land itself has crossed ecological limits. Years of grazing have stripped rangelands until forage is scarce. Wildfires have burned entire properties to bare ground. Invasive species have overtaken others. In these places, livestock are mostly absent because the land can no longer support them.

This is where the situation becomes even more severe. Years of drought, land degradation, and water scarcity have left portions of working land effectively out of production. Some properties must rest for years after fire before native grasses can reestablish. Others face water shortages so extreme that even drought‑tolerant species struggle to survive. These realities show that the pressures facing ranchers extend far beyond market cycles or feed costs. They are rooted in the condition of the land itself.

Across many regions, declining soil health and water retention, vegetation loss, and weakened biodiversity are eroding the natural resilience that ranching depends on. As land degrades, productivity drops. As productivity drops, financial stress intensifies. As financial stress intensifies, investment in restoration becomes harder to justify. This cycle is repeating across the West, across continents, and across generations.

Globally, an estimated 40% of the world's land is already degraded. Past generations could expand production by moving into new areas, but that path can do more harm than good. Expansion now often requires clearing forests or disrupting fragile ecosystems. The future depends on restoring the land already under stewardship.

This challenge carries an opportunity. Degraded land can become productive again. Restoring soil improves forage yields, strengthens resilience to drought and flooding, and opens new revenue pathways. Most importantly, it empowers the people who feed the world.

This is where carbon becomes practical. Healthy soil stores more carbon, improves water retention and forage production, while enhancing biodiversity. When carbon gains are measured and verified, they can generate carbon credits that provide real financial support for ranchers and landowners. Through this model, restoration becomes economically viable while strengthening long‑term ranch productivity and rural economies.

The urgency becomes even clearer when viewed through the lens of global food security. The Global Report on Food Crises found that in 2024, more than 295 million people across 53 countries faced acute food insecurity, nearly triple the number recorded in 2016. Conflict, economic shocks, and extreme weather are accelerating this trend. Meanwhile, demand for food continues to rise, including a projected 6% increase in global consumption of meat, dairy, fish, and other animal‑based products over the coming decade.

When ranchers struggle to remain financially viable, food supply cannot expand fast enough to meet rising demand, and food security risks deepen. Ranching is not only deeply embedded in land stewardship and regional food distribution networks but the very communities themselves. Local businesses thrive alongside the ranching community. Without them, they are left economically isolated and struggle to survive.

It is more than an industry; it is part of society's cultural infrastructure. Working lands carry family history, pride, and community stability across generations. Any solution must honor this reality.

The path forward requires making land restoration economically viable. Systems such as carbon markets can reward ranchers for improving soil and ecosystem health, but only if ranchers are treated as partners in advancing climate resilience, land restoration, and food system stability, rather than participants in abstract policy frameworks. When restoration becomes financially sustainable, land can recover, food systems can stabilize, rural economies can strengthen, and ranching can build a more secure future for society. Ultimately, the future of food security will not be shaped in policy rooms. It will be shaped in the soil, and in the ability of ranchers to restore, protect, and steward it.

About the Author

Robert Lawrence is Chief Carbon Commercial and Land Officer, and General Counsel at Land and Carbon, Inc., a science-driven nature-based carbon solutions company focused on restoring degraded land and creating new economic value for landowners. His work focuses on scaling practical, measurable soil carbon and regenerative land solutions while building trust-based partnerships with agricultural communities. He is passionate about ensuring ranchers remain economically viable while strengthening global food systems, rural economies, and climate resilience through market-aligned solutions.